Daily Market Report

Crude oil led global risk sentiment into the new week after President Trump rejected a peace proposal Iran had presented at the United Nations General Assembly and relayed to Washington via Qatari intermediaries. Trump rejected the offer on Saturday, though he indicated on Sunday that US negotiators are expected to hold further talks with Iran this week, leaving markets to price a mix of continued Middle East risk and the possibility of a breakthrough. Brent crude rose 1.8% to $106.20 a barrel and WTI gained 1.0% to $93.40, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining the focal point for supply-disruption risk amid continuing attacks involving Iran and Iranian-backed Houthi forces on regional energy infrastructure and shipping. Preliminary data showed regional producers shipped roughly 12.8 million barrels a day in September — the highest level since the conflict escalated in February — offering some reassurance that flows are holding up for now, though traders remain wary that the situation could deteriorate quickly if military activity intensifies.

The oil move compounds an already uneasy rates backdrop: the 10-year US Treasury yield closed Friday at 5.18%, its highest level since the global financial crisis, while the 30-year yield has pushed above 5.5%. That combination of higher oil and higher-for-longer yields weighed on Asian markets on Monday, with South Korea's KOSPI falling more than 2% as chipmakers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix slid on profit-taking and rising corporate borrowing costs, even as Hang Seng equities in Hong Kong extended a rebound. For South African investors, the read-through is a firmer oil price at a moment when the rand and local bonds are already digesting last week's SARB rate hike, underscoring the need to watch both the geopolitical headlines and the bond-market response over the next few sessions.

Megacap technology strength and easing oil and Treasury yields into the close lifted the Nasdaq and S&P 500, while a weekend of geopolitical headlines had not yet reasserted itself. Akamai Technologies (AKAM) jumped 8.78% on an $11.6bn cloud-services agreement with Anthropic; Meta Platforms (META) was up roughly 13% for the week after launching its Muse AI agent before retreating slightly on Friday; Nike (NKE) fell after a Bank of America downgrade to Underperform, leaving the stock down 43% year-to-date; Costco (COST) beat EPS estimates ($6.75 vs $6.53 expected).

Japan's Nikkei 225 slipped after a five-session winning streak on the final trading day for September dividend rights. South Korea's KOSPI broke below 7,000 as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell around 4% on profit-taking and rising bond yields, while Hang Seng extended a rebound from three consecutive losses. Mainland China's CSI 300 fell as onshore sentiment cooled. Australia's ASX 200 firmed as banks and insurers rallied ahead of Tuesday's Reserve Bank decision, with Northern Star Resources jumping after rejecting Gold Fields' A$38.7bn takeover approach.

European equities were on track for a weekly gain as oil prices eased into Friday's close, though the CAC 40 slipped marginally. Banks (+1.3%) and travel & leisure (+0.8%) led sector gains, while energy names lagged (-1.3%) as crude retreated ahead of the weekend's geopolitical developments.

South African assets enter the week digesting the SARB's decision last Wednesday to raise the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25% in a unanimous Monetary Policy Committee vote, a move the Bank framed as necessary to anchor inflation expectations even as growth remains fragile. The next MPC meeting date has not been confirmed via available sources; readers should check the SARB's published 2026 MPC calendar directly. The rand softened slightly into this morning to USD/ZAR 16.3517, while the All Share slipped 0.66% on Friday as precious-metals and index-heavyweight moves offset gains elsewhere. Notable single-stock JSE movers from Friday's session are detailed in the table below; because the JSE has not yet opened at the time of writing, all local figures reflect the previous close.

Oil's overnight advance on Middle East risk stands in contrast to gold's pullback, which came amid broader profit-taking after the metal's recent run to record highs; Bitcoin was little changed. The rand softened modestly against a broadly firmer dollar, while sterling and the euro each slipped fractionally.

The global earnings calendar is light today; the week's heavier reporting slate (CarMax, Conagra, Jabil, Accenture, Nike) begins from Tuesday. No JSE-listed company results, trading statements or SENS corporate-action announcements dated 28 September 2026 were confirmed via available sources. The most recently confirmed JSE reporting activity, for context, was on Friday 25 September: Texton Property Fund (TEX) released audited annual results with a cash dividend declaration; Copper 360 (CPR) distributed its integrated annual report and AGM notice; and Mondi plc (MNP) disclosed director dealings in its ordinary shares. Readers should check the JSE SENS feed directly for real-time releases.